Cap Rate Signals — bulldozer mark

Cap Rate Signals

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Weekly board·By Erik P.

Week 4 - Now / Next / Later

Updated Mar 15, 2026

Universe: 52 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity Scoring: Hero × Progress composite (0–10) Tier boundaries: NOW 7.5–10.0 / NEXT 5.5–7.4 / LATER 3.5–5.4 / FUNNEL <3.5

NOW

7.5–10.0 - Deploy capital within 90 days

ScoreMetroCapital Investor$$Hero Catalyst
8.4Sherman, TXTexas Instruments$30BTI fab — workers arriving now into a city of 45,000 with zero existing semiconductor workforce
7.5IndianapolisEli Lilly$20B+Eli Lilly diabetes/obesity manufacturing $13B+ (2,800+ jobs); IU Health downtown hospital $1.6B opening 2026; multi-catalyst stack

NEXT

5.5–7.4 - Underwrite now, set trigger

ScoreMetroCapital Investor$$Hero Catalyst
7.1West Lafayette, INSK hynix$3.87BSK hynix HBM semiconductor packaging — $458M CHIPS + $500M loan; 1,000 direct / 7,000 total; under construction
6.0Kansas City, MOPanasonic$7B+Panasonic EV battery $4B (4,000 jobs; OPERATIONAL Jul 2025); Honeywell KCNSC expansion (4,000 jobs; under construction)
5.95 ↑Boise, IDMicron Technology$2B+Micron Technology existing fab (OPERATIONAL; 5,000+ jobs; expansion cycles)
5.7Tulsa, OKEGA / Century Aluminum$4BEGA/Century Aluminum $4B aluminum smelter — 1,000 jobs; Inola, Tulsa MSA
5.5St. Louis, MOBoeing$2B+NGA Next $1.7B government campus (operational <18 months)
5.5Knoxville, TNOak Ridge$500M+Oak Ridge nuclear/advanced manufacturing expansion (ongoing)

LATER

3.5–5.4 - Monitor quarterly - Top 5 only

ScoreMetroCapital Investor$$Hero Catalyst
5.04San Antonio, TXToyota$531MToyota $531M EV battery expansion (operational)
4.9Lehigh Valley, PAEli LillyTBDEli Lilly manufacturing (announced Jan 2025) — greenfield, no existing pharma workforce
4.9Allentown, PAEli Lilly$1.8BEli Lilly $1.8B pharmaceutical manufacturing — construction underway
4.5Nashville, TNHCA Healthcare$2.5B+HCA Healthcare HQ anchor; Oracle groundbreaking still not started; Ford Blue Oval delayed to 2029
4.5Wilmington, NCThermo Fisher Scientific$500M+Thermo Fisher Scientific (2,500 jobs; biotech manufacturing)

Scoring universe: 52 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity as of Mar 15, 2026 Hero × Progress framework. Not investment advice.