San Antonio sits in the gap between announced and operational on multiple legitimately large bets. JCB's ~$700M+ South Side factory (1M sq ft, 1,500 jobs phased over five years) is JCB's largest investment globally and the largest greenfield manufacturing announcement in San Antonio in a generation — and the prior data feed missed it entirely. Toyota's $531M rear-axle plant (411 jobs) is in welding-robot installation with production starting November 2026, NOT operational as the prior framing had it. Microsoft's roughly $3.1B of disclosed data-center filings span Bexar and Medina counties through 2027–2028.

Demographic spillover from Austin into Schertz / Cibolo / New Braunfels is the second-order driver — passive but real, supporting +1.5% MSA pop CAGR. The Judson ISD collapse (B→D rating, three elementary closures, 536 layoffs April 2026) is the local red flag that pushes catalyst-aligned investors into adjacent SCUC ISD instead. Military / JBSA presence is steady-state and already priced.

Cap Rate Signals tracks confirmed corporate investment about to move workers into a metro before real estate pricing has adjusted. Our model flags San Antonio as LATER — keep on the watch list. LATER becomes NEXT when JCB hires past 1,000 of its 1,500 phased jobs and Toyota's rear-axle line begins production in November 2026.