Universe: 52 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity Scoring: Hero × Progress composite (0–10) Tier boundaries: NOW 7.5–10.0 / NEXT 5.5–7.4 / LATER 3.5–5.4 / FUNNEL <3.5
NOW
7.5–10.0 - Deploy capital within 90 days
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.46 | San Antonio, TX | Toyota | $531M | Toyota $531M EV battery expansion (operational) |
| 4.9 | Lehigh Valley, PA | Eli Lilly | TBD | Eli Lilly manufacturing (announced Jan 2025) — greenfield, no existing pharma workforce |
| 4.9 | Allentown, PA | Eli Lilly | $1.8B | Eli Lilly $1.8B pharmaceutical manufacturing — construction underway |
| 4.5 | Nashville, TN | HCA Healthcare | $2.5B+ | HCA Healthcare HQ anchor; Oracle groundbreaking still not started; Ford Blue Oval delayed to 2029 |
| 4.5 | Wilmington, NC | Thermo Fisher Scientific | $500M+ | Thermo Fisher Scientific (2,500 jobs; biotech manufacturing) |
NEXT
5.5–7.4 - Underwrite now, set trigger
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1 | West Lafayette, IN | SK hynix | $3.87B | SK hynix HBM semiconductor packaging — $458M CHIPS + $500M loan; 1,000 direct / 7,000 total; under construction |
| 6.0 | Kansas City, MO | Panasonic | $7B+ | Panasonic EV battery $4B (4,000 jobs; OPERATIONAL Jul 2025); Honeywell KCNSC expansion (4,000 jobs; under construction) |
| 5.95 | Boise, ID | Micron Technology | $2B+ | Micron Technology existing fab (OPERATIONAL; 5,000+ jobs; expansion cycles) |
| 5.7 | Tulsa, OK | EGA / Century Aluminum | $4B | EGA/Century Aluminum $4B aluminum smelter — 1,000 jobs; Inola, Tulsa MSA |
| 5.5 | St. Louis, MO | Boeing | $2B+ | NGA Next $1.7B government campus (operational <18 months) |
| 5.5 | Knoxville, TN | Oak Ridge | $500M+ | Oak Ridge nuclear/advanced manufacturing expansion (ongoing) |
LATER
3.5–5.4 - Monitor quarterly - Top 5 only
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.46 | San Antonio, TX | Toyota | $531M | Toyota $531M EV battery expansion (operational) |
| 4.9 | Lehigh Valley, PA | Eli Lilly | TBD | Eli Lilly manufacturing (announced Jan 2025) — greenfield, no existing pharma workforce |
| 4.9 | Allentown, PA | Eli Lilly | $1.8B | Eli Lilly $1.8B pharmaceutical manufacturing — construction underway |
| 4.5 | Nashville, TN | HCA Healthcare | $2.5B+ | HCA Healthcare HQ anchor; Oracle groundbreaking still not started; Ford Blue Oval delayed to 2029 |
| 4.5 | Wilmington, NC | Thermo Fisher Scientific | $500M+ | Thermo Fisher Scientific (2,500 jobs; biotech manufacturing) |
Signals to Watch
⚠ Memphis, TN (LATER 3.6) - Major employer job cuts confirmed in 2026. No stage change yet, but the FedEx anchor thesis warrants closer monitoring. Score under review.
⚠ Richmond, VA (FUNNEL 2.7) — Meta layoffs and metaverse pivot creating uncertainty around the $800M data center investment. Data center jobs are already thin; workforce disruption compounds the weak thesis. Watch for further cuts.
↑ Syracuse, NY (LATER 4.2) — Second Micron business park greenlit; South Korean supplier committing to Clay. No physical stage change yet, but the ecosystem is building around the fab ahead of schedule. Positive signal for the 2030 timeline.
↑ San Diego, CA (FUNNEL 3.4) — Anduril's Long Beach campus moved to pre-operational this week (progress 0.50 → 0.85). Entered the board as a new Funnel entry. Worth tracking as operations ramp.
Scoring universe: 52 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity as of Mar 30, 2026 Hero × Progress framework. Not investment advice.