Universe: 52 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity Scoring: Hero × Progress composite (0–10) Tier boundaries: NOW 7.5–10.0 / NEXT 5.5–7.4 / LATER 3.5–5.4 / FUNNEL <3.5
NOW
7.5–10.0 - Deploy capital within 90 days
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4 | Sherman, TX | Texas Instruments | $30B | TI fab — workers arriving now into a city of 45,000 with zero existing semiconductor workforce |
| 7.5 | Indianapolis | Eli Lilly | $20B+ | Eli Lilly diabetes/obesity manufacturing $13B+ (2,800+ jobs); IU Health downtown hospital $1.6B (2026); multi-catalyst stack |
No change from Week 2.
NEXT
5.5–7.4 - Underwrite now, set trigger
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1 | West Lafayette, IN | SK hynix | $3.87B | SK hynix HBM semiconductor packaging — $458M CHIPS + $500M loan; 1,000 direct / 7,000 total; under construction |
| 6.0 | Kansas City, MO | Panasonic | $7B+ | Panasonic EV battery $4B (4,000 jobs; OPERATIONAL Jul 2025); Honeywell KCNSC expansion (4,000 jobs; under construction) |
| 5.7 | Tulsa, OK | EGA / Century Aluminum | $4B | EGA/Century Aluminum $4B aluminum smelter — 1,000 jobs; Inola, Tulsa MSA; production ~2030 |
| 5.5 | St. Louis, MO | Boeing | $2B+ campus / $20B F-47 | Boeing F-47 fighter contract ($20B+) + $2B campus expansion; defense HQ returned to St. Louis Feb 2026 |
| 5.5 | Knoxville, TN | Oak Ridge | $500M+ | Oak Ridge nuclear/advanced manufacturing expansion (ongoing) |
Movement: Three new entries this week. Tulsa earns its place on the strength of a large-scale industrial catalyst arriving in an undersupplied market. St. Louis is notable — Boeing's return of its defense HQ in February 2026 combined with the F-47 contract reactivates a catalyst stack that had gone quiet. Knoxville enters on the Oak Ridge nuclear expansion, which has been building quietly.
LATER
3.5–5.4 - Monitor quarterly - Top 5 only
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Lehigh Valley, PA | Eli Lilly | TBD | Eli Lilly manufacturing (announced Jan 2025) — greenfield site, no existing pharma workforce |
| 4.9 | Allentown, PA | Eli Lilly | $1.8B | Eli Lilly $1.8B pharmaceutical manufacturing — construction underway |
| 4.7 | Boise, ID | Micron | $2B+ | Micron Technology existing fab (5,000+ jobs; expansion cycles); diversified tech stack |
| 4.6 | Huntsville, AL | US DoD / Space Command | $3B+ | US Space Command HQ relocating to Redstone Arsenal (4,700 jobs, 2025) + Mazda Toyota $2.3B plant (4,000 workers) |
| 4.5 | Nashville, TN | HCA Healthcare | $2.5B+ | HCA Healthcare HQ anchor; Oracle campus groundbreaking still not started; Ford Blue Oval delayed to 2029 |
Movement: Allentown enters as a new entry distinct from Lehigh Valley — the Eli Lilly $1.8B construction is now underway, separating it from the broader regional designation. Huntsville is the week's most significant score revision, up 0.7 points: the confirmed US Space Command HQ relocation (4,700 high-earning DoD/contractor jobs arriving 2025) combined with the Mazda Toyota plant materially strengthens the workforce concentration case.
Scoring universe: 52 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity as of Mar 08, 2026 Hero × Progress framework. Predictions are model outputs, not investment advice. All predictions tracked and published.