St. Louis is a contrarian NEXT — cheap basis against structural decline. City median ~$185K, MSA $258K (~38% below national), deep landlord-friendly regulation — against a -0.4% MSA 5-year CAGR (city -1.6%). The investment case rests on the catalyst stack outweighing demographic erosion.

Boeing won the F-47 NGAD prime contract March 21, 2025 — a multi-decade sixth-gen fighter program — and is completing a $1.8B advanced combat air facility at Lambert with a 500-job tax-break floor and supply-chain multiplier above. NGA Next's $1.7B campus opened September 26, 2025 with a 3,150-cleared-worker transition completing spring 2026; the workforce is relocating from Soulard, so net-new resident demand is materially less than headline — the thesis is concentration shifting which submarkets capture the cohort. Cortex Innovation District is the slower-cadence supporting catalyst.

Cap Rate Signals tracks confirmed corporate investment about to move workers into a metro before real estate pricing has adjusted. Our model flags St. Louis as NEXT — position before the wave. NEXT becomes NOW when Boeing publishes F-47 production-hire announcements beyond the 500 floor and the NGA Soulard → St. Louis Place migration completes with measurable submarket compression in north city and adjacent county.