Cap Rate Signals — bulldozer mark

Cap Rate Signals

← All Markets

Sherman, TX.

NOW7.74pre-wave

Texas Instruments' SM1 fab began production in December 2025 — the first of up to four fabs on a $40B mega-site (reframed from initial $30B 2021 commitment) dropped into a city of 53,000 with no.”

Why This Market Fits

Sherman is a NOW market with a sharper thesis than the headline. Texas Instruments' SM1 began producing wafers December 2025 — a $30B campus dropped into a Grayson County town of 53K with no prior semi workforce. Against “up to 3,000” direct jobs at full buildout, an undisclosed Richardson / Dallas transfer cohort, equipment crews, and DFW commuters dilute the net-new-resident math. The family-engineer cohort lands in Gunter ISD and Van Alstyne ISD — not Sherman proper.

Cap Rate Signals tracks confirmed corporate investment about to move workers into a metro before real estate pricing has adjusted. Sherman 75090 trades 45% below the national median with transactions still printing −12% YoY. SM1 is producing and SM2 is hiring — our model says buy NOW. The window narrows when Sherman ISD enrollment growth and Grayson County rent prints confirm the cohort is actually relocating, not commuting.

─── This is where it gets useful. ───

Below: 1 catalyst writeups, 4 submarket picks with specific streets, 4 active listings that fit the thesis, and full source chronology.

This is the part subscribers come for. It's where you go from Sherman looks interesting to “buy these blocks, not those.”

Founder's year — 9 of 10 seats remain

$99 / year

Locked in forever. After the first 10 founders, $199/year.

Annual · non-refundable · cancel auto-renewal anytime

The Numbers

Median Home Price
$232K (Sherman 75090, Jan 2026)
Price vs National
−45% (Sherman 75090 $232K vs $420K national)
Pricing Trend (12 mo)
−12.3% (Sherman 75090 transactions, 12-mo Jan 2026)
Rent-to-Income
21% ($1,460 rent / $70K income, Sherman-Denison MSA)
Days on Market
73 days (Sherman-Denison MSA, vs ~45 day national norm)
Inventory (months)
~6 (Sherman-Denison MSA, RCLCO flags multi-yr pipeline)
Distressed Sales
~4% (TX state proxy; MSA below ATTOM 200K threshold)
Population
53K (Sherman-Denison MSA 157K)
Population Growth
+3.0% (Sherman 5-yr CAGR; +21% since 2020)
Employment Diversity
Manufacturing-anchored (Sherman-Denison MSA: food processing + semis, concentrating)
Regulation
Strongly landlord-friendly (Texas: no rent control, no deposit cap)

2-plex Price
$240K–$320K (Sherman 75090 2-plex, Apr 2026; median list $294K)

Verify · Single-family metrics, hand-populated first-pass. Multi-plex rows render only when sourced for this metro.