Universe: 107 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity Scoring: Hero x Progress composite (0-10) Tier boundaries: NOW 7.5-10.0 / NEXT 5.5-7.4 / LATER 3.5-5.4 / FUNNEL <3.5
NOW
7.5-10.0 - Deploy capital within 90 days
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.74 | Sherman, TX | Texas Instruments | $30B | Texas Instruments fab $30B (workers arriving now) |
| 7.14 | Taylor, TX | Samsung Electronics | $17B+ | Samsung $17B semiconductor fab (equipment installation phase, 2nm node) |
NEXT
5.5-7.4 - Underwrite now, set trigger
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.99 | Indianapolis, IN | Eli Lilly | $20B+ | Eli Lilly diabetes/obesity mfg $17.5B+ (2,800+ jobs; +$4.5B LEAP add May 2026) |
| 5.95 | Boise, ID | Micron Technology | $2B+ | Micron Technology fab expansion ~$50B (~17K jobs total; ID1 first wafer mid-2027) |
| 5.70 | Tulsa, OK | Century Aluminum/EGA | $10B+ | Century Aluminum/EGA $4B smelter (1,000 jobs; announced 2024-25) |
| 5.64 | West Lafayette, IN | SK hynix | $3.87B | SK hynix HBM packaging $4.83B ($458M CHIPS + $500M loan + project capex) (1,000 direct / 7,000 total; under construction) |
| 5.50 | Knoxville, TN | Oak Ridge | $500M+ | Oak Ridge nuclear/advanced manufacturing expansion (ongoing) |
LATER
3.5-5.4 - Monitor quarterly - Top 5 only
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.43 | Lehigh Valley, PA | Eli Lilly | umbrella $27B/4-site (per-site not separately disclosed) | Eli Lilly retatrutide / GLP-1 manufacturing — 4th of Lilly's Feb 2025 $27B / 4-site umbrella, LV site named Jan 30, 2026 at joint Shapiro/Lilly event (per-site investment not separately disclosed; ~925K sq ft across 7 buildings on 150 acres at 9802 Main St, Fogelsville; construction underway May 2026) |
| 5.40 | Columbus, OH | Anduril / Honda / Amazon | $25B+ | Intel semiconductor fab $20B (3,000+ direct; under construction) |
| 5.40 | Palm Bay, FL | L3Harris Technologies | $100M | L3Harris $100M satellite integration facility (operational) |
| 5.33 | Kansas City, MO/KS | Panasonic | $7B+ | Panasonic EV battery $4B (4,000 jobs; OPERATIONAL Jul 2025) |
| 5.12 | Syracuse, NY | Micron | $100B | Micron Technology semiconductor fab $100B ($6.2B CHIPS + $5.5B NY State) (9,000 direct / 50,000 total) |
Signals to Watch
↓ Lafayette, LA (NEXT to LATER) — Score moved from 5.50 to 4.80 — back to LATER after one week in NEXT. The catalyst stack is unchanged (DMR Technologies drones, MMR Group's data-center assembly, Saronic Technologies' shipyard all still confirmed), but the framework recategorized from "Building — investment confirmed, workers not yet here" to "Solid fundamentals — good operator's market, appreciation story conditional." The mechanism: market-fundamentals data caught up. Cap rate 6.5–7.2% and vacancy 6.8–7.5% reflect a yield-priced market, AND the headline "2,200+ direct jobs" includes Saronic's 1,500-job shipyard in adjacent St. Mary Parish (not Lafayette Parish itself), so direct in-Lafayette demand is closer to ~700 jobs across DMR + MMR. Honest correction. Watch: DMR's end-of-2025 operational milestone and MMR's Q1 2026 hiring volume — still real signals, just at smaller scale than last week's framing implied.
↓ Shreveport, LA (exits NEXT) — Same pattern as Lafayette. Score dropped from 5.50 below the LATER top-5 cutoff after one week in NEXT, re-classified to "Solid fundamentals — good operator's market." The mechanism: vacancy is 8.5–9.2% (structural oversupply lingering from automotive decline), and the "1,500+ direct jobs" headline includes Radiance Technologies' 150 jobs in nearby Ruston (not Shreveport), so direct Shreveport demand is closer to ~700 across SLB + Akston. Operator's market, not appreciation story. Watch: SLB's January 2026 construction start; vacancy compression in Highland/Broadmoor would be the first operational signal that demand is outpacing supply.
Kansas City label update — The Kansas City row was relabeled from "MO" to "MO/KS" to reflect that the metro spans both states. Same metro, same Panasonic story, no change in scoring — just a label correction.
Scoring universe: 107 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity as of May 24, 2026 Hero x Progress framework. Not investment advice.