Universe: 107 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity Scoring: Hero x Progress composite (0-10) Tier boundaries: NOW 7.5-10.0 / NEXT 5.5-7.4 / LATER 3.5-5.4 / FUNNEL <3.5
NOW
7.5-10.0 - Deploy capital within 90 days
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.74 | Sherman, TX | Texas Instruments | $30B | Texas Instruments fab $30B (workers arriving now) |
| 7.14 ↑ | Taylor | Samsung Electronics | $17B+ | Samsung $17B semiconductor fab (equipment installation phase, 2nm node) |
NEXT
5.5-7.4 - Underwrite now, set trigger
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.99 | Indianapolis | Eli Lilly | $20B+ | Eli Lilly diabetes/obesity mfg $17.5B+ (2,800+ jobs; +$4.5B LEAP add May 2026) |
| 5.95 | Boise, ID | Micron Technology | $2B+ | Micron Technology existing fab (OPERATIONAL; 5,000+ jobs; expansion cycles) |
| 5.70 | Tulsa, OK | Century Aluminum/EGA | $10B+ | Century Aluminum/EGA $1.1B smelter (announced 2024) |
| 5.64 | West Lafayette, IN | SK hynix | $3.87B | SK hynix HBM packaging $3.87B ($458M CHIPS + $500M loan) (1,000 direct / 7,000 total; under construction) |
| 5.50 | Knoxville, TN | Oak Ridge | $500M+ | Oak Ridge nuclear/advanced manufacturing expansion (ongoing) |
| 5.50 | Lafayette | DMR Technologies / MMR Group | $356.6M+ | DMR Technologies $1.4M drone manufacturing facility (500+ direct jobs) |
| 5.50 | Shreveport | SLB | $117M+ | SLB $30M data center equipment expansion (construction Jan 2026) |
LATER
3.5-5.4 - Monitor quarterly - Top 5 only
| Score | Metro | Capital Investor | $$ | Hero Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.43 | Lehigh Valley | Eli Lilly | umbrella $27B/4-site (per-site not separately disclosed) | Eli Lilly retatrutide / GLP-1 manufacturing — 4th of Lilly's Feb 2025 $27B / 4-site umbrella, LV site named Jan 30, 2026 at joint Shapiro/Lilly event (per-site investment not separately disclosed; ~925K sq ft across 7 buildings on 150 acres at 9802 Main St, Fogelsville; construction underway May 2026) |
| 5.40 | Columbus, OH | Anduril / Honda / Amazon | $25B+ | Intel semiconductor fab $20B (3,000+ direct; under construction) |
| 5.40 | Palm Bay | L3Harris Technologies | $100M | L3Harris $100M satellite integration facility (operational) |
| 5.33 | Kansas City, MO | Panasonic | $7B+ | Panasonic EV battery $4B (4,000 jobs; OPERATIONAL Jul 2025) |
| 5.12 | Syracuse | Micron | $100B | Micron Technology semiconductor fab $100B ($6.2B CHIPS + $5.5B NY State) (9,000 direct / 50,000 total) |
Signals to Watch
↑ Taylor, TX (NEXT to NOW) — Score moved from 6.46 to 7.14, crossing the NOW threshold and putting two metros in NOW after a week of Sherman alone. The proximate trigger: Samsung's equipment move-in ceremony in April 2026 marked tangible progress past the customer-uncertainty period that cleared last week with the Tesla anchor deal locked in. 178 active job postings as of May 2026 mean recruiting is underway, and roughly half of the ~1,500 full-ramp jobs require globally-recruited 2nm specialist talent that creates truly net-new Taylor residents. The structural caveat still applies: the rest of the headcount may commute from Samsung's Austin campus 30 miles south. Watch: 2nm specialist hiring volume vs. Austin-campus transfers, and any clarification on the recently-flagged mass-production slip to 2027 (TrendForce, Mar 2026).
↓ San Antonio, TX (drops out of LATER top 5) — Score moved from 5.40 to 4.62, off the board. The brief still reads "solid fundamentals — good operator's market, appreciation story conditional," with the JCB ~$700M South Side factory and Toyota's $531M rear-axle plant unchanged. Likely mechanism: scoring caught up to the realistic net-new headcount of ~1,900 jobs (1,500 JCB phased over 5 years + 411 Toyota at production start Nov 2026), which is modest on a 2.6M-population MSA relative to other NEXT-tier markets at the same hero scale. Frame as scoring catching up to scale, not catalyst weakening. The Austin/Hill Country submarket spillover remains the second-order driver per the brief. Watch: JCB hiring cadence as vertical construction continues; Toyota production start November 2026.
Scoring universe: 107 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity as of May 18, 2026 Hero x Progress framework. Not investment advice.