Cap Rate Signals — bulldozer mark

Cap Rate Signals

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Columbus, OH.

NEXT5.40mid-wave

Columbus's economy doesn't hinge on Intel: Honda's EV battery plant is operational, Anduril is hiring for defense, and Ohio State plus Nationwide HQ anchor a stable employment base.”

Why This Market Fits

Columbus is a NEXT market with the casting flipped since 2022. Intel was the hero on paper, but Mod 1 slipped to 2030–2031 and Mod 2 to 2032 — the 3,000 fab jobs that would drive multifamily absorption now arrive five years behind original schedule. The catalyst actually putting workers in housing in 2026 is Honda's $4.4B EV battery plant in Jeffersonville (~40 mi SW), now wholly Honda after the December 2025 $2.9B buyout of LG Energy Solution's stake.

Anduril Industries' Arsenal-1 hyperscale defense factory at Rickenbacker opened production March 2026 (three months ahead of schedule); the 4,000-job ramp is back-loaded but the first cohort lands now. Ohio State Wexner's $1.79B University Hospital tower opened February 22 2026, adding 820 private rooms of staffing demand to the medical corridor. Multi-catalyst geometry is dispersed — Licking NE / Fayette S / Pickaway S / urban core — so picks vary by commute geometry, not a single best location.

Cap Rate Signals tracks confirmed corporate investment about to move workers into a metro before real estate pricing has adjusted. Our model flags Columbus as NEXT — position before the wave. NEXT becomes NOW when Honda's EV battery 2,200-hire ramp crosses 50% (currently ~525) and Anduril's 4,000-job hiring begins materially ahead of the back-loaded schedule.

─── This is where it gets useful. ───

Below: 4 catalyst writeups, 4 submarket picks with specific streets, 3 active listings that fit the thesis, and full source chronology.

This is the part subscribers come for. It's where you go from Columbus looks interesting to “buy these blocks, not those.”

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The Numbers

Median Home Price
$290K (Columbus city median, Mar 2026 (Redfin))
Price vs National
−31% (Columbus $290K vs $420K national)
Pricing Trend (12 mo)
+3.9% (Columbus city, 12-mo through Mar 2026)
Rent-to-Income
19% ($1,290 rent / $83K MSA income)
Days on Market
53 days (Columbus city, lengthening from sub-30 boom-era)
Inventory (months)
1.7 (Columbus MSA, tight — seller-leaning)
Distressed Sales
~1 in 1,200 (OH near national; rising YoY but absolute level low)
Population
920K (Columbus city; Columbus MSA 2.24M)
Population Growth
+0.95% (Columbus MSA 5-yr CAGR; ~2x US rate 2024–25)
Employment Diversity
Diverse (Columbus MSA: OSU + Nationwide + JPMorgan + Honda + Intel)
Regulation
Moderately landlord-friendly (Ohio: no rent control, no deposit cap (ORC §5321))

2-plex Price
$260K–$400K (Columbus city 2-unit; median list ~$325K, Apr 2026)

Verify · Single-family metrics, hand-populated first-pass. Multi-plex rows render only when sourced for this metro.