Cap Rate Signals — bulldozer mark

Cap Rate Signals

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Weekly board·By Erik P.

Week 7 — Now / Next / Later

Updated Apr 26, 2026

Universe: 52 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity Scoring: Hero × Progress composite (0–10) Tier boundaries: NOW 7.5–10.0 / NEXT 5.5–7.4 / LATER 3.5–5.4 / FUNNEL <3.5


NOW

7.5–10.0 → Deploy capital within 90 days

ScoreMetroCapital Investor$$Hero Catalyst
8.55Columbus, OHAnduril / Honda-LG / Intel$25B+Anduril Arsenal-1 — $910M, 4,000 jobs, production Jul 2026; Honda-LG $4.2B EV battery plant (near completion); Intel Ohio One under construction (2030 timeline)
7.99Sherman, TXTexas Instruments$30BTI fab — workers arriving now into a city of 45,000 with zero existing semiconductor workforce
7.82IndianapolisEli Lilly$20B+Eli Lilly diabetes/obesity manufacturing $13B+ (2,800+ jobs); IU Health downtown hospital $1.6B opening 2026; multi-catalyst stack

No change from Week 6.


NEXT

5.5–7.4 → Underwrite now, set trigger

ScoreMetroCapital Investor$$Hero Catalyst
5.95Boise, IDMicron Technology$2B+Micron Technology existing fab (OPERATIONAL; 5,000+ jobs; expansion cycles)
5.7Tulsa, OKEGA / Century Aluminum$4BEGA/Century Aluminum $4B aluminum smelter — 1,000 jobs; Inola, Tulsa MSA
5.64 ▼West Lafayette, INSK hynix$3.87BSK hynix HBM semiconductor packaging — $458M CHIPS + $500M loan; 1,000 direct / 7,000 total; under construction
5.5St. Louis, MOBoeing / NGA$2B+NGA Next $1.7B government campus (operational <18 months)
5.5Knoxville, TNOak Ridge$500M+Oak Ridge nuclear/advanced manufacturing expansion (ongoing)

LATER

3.5–5.4 → Monitor quarterly — Top 5 only

ScoreMetroCapital Investor$$Hero Catalyst
5.46Louisville, KYGE Appliances$9.8B+GE Appliances $6.5B invested since 2016 (Appliance Park, global HQ)
5.4San Antonio, TXToyota$531MToyota $531M EV battery expansion (operational)
5.33Kansas City, MOPanasonic$7B+Panasonic EV battery $4B (4,000 jobs; OPERATIONAL Jul 2025); Honeywell KCNSC expansion (under construction)
5.12Syracuse, NYMicron$100BMicron $100B fab; second business park greenlit; South Korean suppliers committing to Clay; Fab 1 production 2030
4.9Lehigh Valley, PAEli LillyTBDEli Lilly manufacturing (announced Jan 2025) — greenfield, no existing pharma workforce

Signals to Watch

▼ West Lafayette, IN — Drops from 7.1 to 5.64, the largest single-week move on the board. Falls from near the top of NEXT to near the bottom. SK hynix construction continues but the Progress scoring reflects updated timing on workforce arrivals. Worth monitoring closely — if the hiring timeline firms up, this recovers quickly.

San Antonio — Ticks down slightly to 5.4 from 5.46. Still at the top of LATER but moving away from the NEXT threshold rather than toward it.


Scoring universe: 52 U.S. metros with qualifying catalyst activity as of Apr 26, 2026 Hero × Progress framework. Not investment advice.