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Cap Rate Signals

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Oklahoma City, OK.

FUNNEL3.30Limited coverage

CBC Global Ammunition's $300M advanced manufacturing facility is under construction after site selection in 2024, anchoring a broader aerospace and defense cluster expansion tied to Tinker Air Force.”

Why This Market Fits

Oklahoma City, OK is in our pipeline — signals are early. Announcements without enough confirmation, or scale that doesn't justify near-term repricing.

Cap Rate Signals tracks confirmed corporate investment about to move workers into a metro before real estate pricing has adjusted. Our model flags Oklahoma City, OK as FUNNEL — monitor for qualifying milestones.

─── This is where it gets useful. ───

Below: 3 catalyst writeups, and full source chronology.

This is the part subscribers come for. It's where you go from Oklahoma City looks interesting to “buy these blocks, not those.”

Founder's year — 9 of 10 seats remain

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The Numbers

Median Home Price
$270K (Redfin city-level, Mar 2026; median sale price, city of Oklahoma City)
Price vs National
−39% (Redfin metro, Mar 2026; OKC $270K vs ~$443K implied national median (Redfin: 'OKC 39% lower than national avg'))
Pricing Trend (12 mo)
0.0% YoY (Redfin city, Mar 2026 vs Mar 2025; flat appreciation — stable floor, not depreciating; MSA ZHVI +1.0% YoY per Zillow)
Rent-to-Income
20.6% (Zumper OKC median rent $1,250/mo (Mar 2026) × 12 ÷ ACS 2024 MSA median HHI $72,930 (Census Reporter))
Days on Market
57 days (Redfin city, Mar 2026; up from 54 days a year prior — above ~45-day national norm, buyer-favorable slack)
Inventory (months)
~4 mo (Redfin Oklahoma state, Mar 2026 (OKC-MSA-specific not separately published; state figure used as proxy; 5–6 mo = balanced))
Distressed Sales
~0.03% (ATTOM Data, Mar 2026; OK state rate 1 in 3,356 housing units — well below national 1 in 1,211; OKC-metro breakdown not separately published by ATTOM)
Population
713K city / 1.50M MSA (U.S. Census Bureau; city 2024 est. 712,919; 7-county MSA 2024 est. 1,497,821 (Census-sourced estimate))
Population Growth
+1.2% CAGR (U.S. Census Bureau; MSA grew from 1,425,695 (2020 Census) to ~1,497,821 (2024 est.) — ~1.2% annualized 4-yr CAGR)
Employment Diversity
Diverse (BLS OKC Area Economic Summary (Apr 2026); top sectors: govt/defense (Tinker AFB, FAA), health & education, energy/oil & gas, aviation/aerospace, construction, logistics, financial services)
Regulation
Strongly landlord-friendly (Oklahoma (OK Stat. §41-101 et seq.): no rent control, no just-cause eviction mandate, 5-day pay-or-quit notice, ~60-90 day judicial foreclosure avg — one of the most landlord-favorable states in the US)

2-plex Price
$200K–$320K (Redfin OKC multi-family listings, Feb–Mar 2026; 62 active listings, median list $300K; lower band reflects older/smaller 2-plexes; Homes.com confirms multi-family median $240K (Mar 2026))

Verify · Single-family metrics, hand-populated first-pass. Multi-plex rows render only when sourced for this metro.

What's not here, and why

  • No catalyst stack. No investment in Oklahoma City currently meets our editorial bar (≥$250M and ≥500 jobs in a forward-repricing thesis). When one lands, it gets a full write-up here.
  • No submarket picks. Picks are anchored to a thesis — proximity to a specific catalyst node, school-district cohort, supply pressure. Without a thesis to score against, picks would be generic real-estate advice, not Cap Rate Signals.
  • No underwritten listings. Listings are modeled to the local thesis (cap rates, basis vs. submarket comps, exit assumptions). No thesis means no underwriting.