A quiet week at the top of the board. NOW holds steady with the same three metros. Most of NEXT is unchanged. The headline is West Lafayette, where the score dropped significantly — and the story behind it is more interesting than the number suggests.
West Lafayette: good news, honest score
SK hynix broke ground in West Lafayette five days ago, on April 21. Full-scale construction of the $3.87B advanced packaging facility is now officially underway — foundation piling began in December, vertical construction is slated for later this year. By any reasonable measure, this is a positive development.
So why did the score drop from 7.1 to 5.64?
When West Lafayette first entered the board at 7.1, the original production timeline was Q2 2026 — workers arriving imminently, repricing pressure building now. That timeline has since been revised. Mass production is now targeted for H2 2028. The construction workforce is real and active, but the permanent semiconductor workforce — the one that drives housing repricing — is two and a half years away.
The framework scores Progress based on when workers arrive, not when shovels go in the ground. Construction activity matters, but it doesn't move a housing market the way 1,000 permanent high-wage semiconductor jobs do. West Lafayette's score reflects the honest gap between those two events.
There is a second headwind worth naming. The $458M CHIPS grant and $500M federal loan that underpin the project remain in question. President Trump called the CHIPS Act "horrible" earlier this year and has signaled intent to redirect undeployed funds. Senator Young — who authored the legislation — is working to protect it, and SK hynix has indicated construction continues regardless. But the funding uncertainty is real and is factored into the scoring.
The investment thesis for West Lafayette hasn't changed. The catalyst is high-quality — HBM semiconductor packaging for Nvidia and other US AI customers is not a marginal industry. The Purdue anchor is real. The project is proceeding. The entry point is just further out than we originally modeled, and the score reflects that honestly. When hiring announcements begin in earnest ahead of the 2028 production ramp, the Progress score will move back up quickly.
NOW holds steady
Columbus, Sherman, and Indianapolis are unchanged. No new information materially affects any of the three this week.
The Columbus thesis continues to build. Anduril's Arsenal-1 is on a July 2026 production timeline — now roughly 90 days out. The Honda-LG battery plant in Fayette County is near completion. These are not future events; they are imminent ones. Columbus at 8.55 reflects a market where multiple workforce arrivals are converging in the near term.
San Antonio edges back
San Antonio ticks down from 5.46 to 5.40. The Toyota EV battery expansion is operational and the workforce is there. The slight retreat suggests the market has been absorbing the repricing impact — which is precisely what should happen as an operational catalyst matures. San Antonio remains at the top of LATER and remains worth monitoring, but the window for maximum delta capture may be narrowing.
What to watch in Week 8
Anduril Arsenal-1 — July 2026 production is 90 days out. Any hiring announcements or ramp communications from Anduril in the next few weeks will be meaningful signal for the Rickenbacker/Groveport/Canal Winchester submarket.
West Lafayette CHIPS funding — Any resolution on the federal funding question, in either direction, is a material score input. A confirmed grant disbursement accelerates the timeline; a cancellation puts the 2028 production target at risk.
Louisville — Entered LATER at 5.46 two weeks ago. Watching for any evidence of incremental GE Appliances investment or hiring that would support a continued climb toward NEXT.
Hero × Progress framework. Tier boundaries: NOW 7.5–10.0 / NEXT 5.5–7.4 / LATER 3.5–5.4 / FUNNEL <3.5 All predictions tracked and published. Not investment advice.